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2013年1月20日日曜日

気になった一文集(English ver. No. 8)

Physical climate science has moved beyond merely describing human influences on climate; the physical basis of climate change is sufficiently well developed to investigate whether particular events such as droughts, heatwaves and floods are attributable to human influences.

Canadian climate aberration」Nature Geoscience (Jan 2013) Gordon Bonan著
カナダにおいて虫の大量発生によって生じた森林の変化が地域的な温暖化を引き起こした。気候変動→生態系の擾乱→気候変動というフィードバック。

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Humans are changing the planet in so many ways that it’s hard to say how it all will influence climate in the end.
人間は非常に多くの方法で地球を変えているため、何が気候に結果的に影響するかを言うのは難しい。

What Dust May Have To Do With Earth’s Rapidly Warming Poles」LDEO News & Events、Gisela Winckler著
ダストが極域の気候増幅(polar amplification)に果たす役割。

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They're all about where people come from. The only thing that's important is where somebody's going
人は来た道ばかり気にするが、どこへ向かうかが大切だ。


ジョン・デリンジャー(John Herbert Dillinger Jr)(映画パブリック・エネミーズより)

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“If we did everything we could to reduce these emissions,” said co-author Piers Forster of the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom in a statement, “we could buy ourselves up to half a degree (Celsius) less warming—or a couple of decades of respite.”

Soot Is Warming the World, A Lot」ScienceNOW Richard A. Kerr著
スス(Black carbon)がCO2の次に温室効果を発揮しているが、その推定値が従来考えられていたよりも大きいかもしれない。CO2と違ってススの排出削減はすぐに効果を発揮する(ただし、寒冷化に効いているエアロゾルも存在することに注意)。

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Under the present illustrative assumptions, the 1.5°C target expires after 2028, and the 2°C target vanishes after 2044. These times would be later if a period of stabilized emissions preceded the GMS. The more likely situation, however, is that a specific climate target becomes unreachable much earlier, because there are upper limits on sustained emissions reduction rates imposed by what the countries’ economies can realize collectively given the present state of technology and infrastructure.

Both delay and insufficient mitigation efforts close the door on limiting global mean warming permanently.

The Closing Door of Climate Targets」(Science記事 vol. 339, 280-282)Thomas F. Stocker著
将来の温暖化緩和の目標を達成するための時間が徐々に縮まっており、ただちに行動を開始しなければならないことを警告。

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Overall, our study shows that the CCS joins the Arctic and Southern oceans as one of only a few known ocean regions presently approaching the dual threshold of widespread and near-permanent undersaturation with respect to aragonite and a departure from its variability envelope. In these regions, organisms may be forced to rapidly adjust to conditions that are both inherently chemically challenging and also substantially different from past conditions.
全体として、我々の研究は「CCSが北極海と南大洋のようなあまりよく分かっていない海域と同じ状態になりつつあること(アラゴナイトに関して不飽和な状態が広範囲かつほぼ絶えず起きつつある)」と、「自然変動の範囲から逸脱していること」を示している。これらの海域では、化学的に攻撃的であり過去の状態とは大きく異なる海水に対して、生物は早く適応することを余儀なくされるかもしれない。

Spatiotemporal variability and long-term trends of ocean acidification in the California Current System」(Hauri et al., 2013, Biogeosciences)
カリフォルニア海流系の海洋酸性化の将来予測。

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Modern and paleo OA events are accompanied by shifts in temperature, stratification, and dissolved oxygen. The impacts of OA can depend on values of interacting stressors such as temperature and oxygen, and pH may in turn alter tolerance to these stressors, with major consequences for organism function.

太平洋の様々な海域の海洋表層水のpHの日周変動のモニタリング。海洋酸性化単体ではなく、温暖化や貧酸素などが一緒に生物にストレスを与えるということ。

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This latter effect may prove significant for biological carbon sequestration too, because plant growth is often limited by the availability of fixed nitrogen.

Coastal communities such as mangroves, salt marshes and seagrass meadows had been recognised as a valuable carbon store that is — from a climate perspective — worthy of preservation.

That cryptogamic coatings and seagrass meadows have only now been found to play such a significant role in the global carbon cycle should spur further efforts to look more closely at hitherto neglected ecosystems.


Beyond forest carbon」Nature geoscience記事 (July 2012)
地衣類が陸上の炭素・窒素循環に多大な貢献をしていることが最近分かってきた。

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And indeed, global warming is a deeply ethical issue: actions that we take today are likely to affect the well-being of others in the future, and not just that of our own kith and kin. Modifying our own behaviour to limit the impact of climate change can be seen as being truly altruistic if it means making individual sacrifices now to benefit future generations or people in those parts of the world already being affected by climate change. Of course, some live only for the present, caring little about what will happen to our planet once they are dead and gone. However, many of us do want to make a difference and do feel guilty when our actions are not in kilter with our lofty ideals.

This is a fraught area where it is difficult not to sound sanctimonious or even open to the charge of hypocrisy — and scientific editors are not immune.

Scientists, as well as editors, naturally feel torn by the dilemma, and many have started seriously to question whether the extent of travel to international conferences is defensible.

If we were all to change our behaviour, the results would be significant.


Guilt trip」Nature Climate Change記事 (May 2012)
気候変動に対する一般の人の感情、科学者・雑誌編集者の心構え。

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The climate envelope approach ignores a core truth of ecology: Species interact with each other in ways that deeply affect their viability.

climate change may have especially strong effects on top-consumer extinctions and range shifts.


Biotic Multipliers of Climate Change」Science記事(Perspectives, Vol. 336 no. 6088 pp. 1516-1518 )
気候変動と生態系の応答は複雑。