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2013年1月10日木曜日

気になった一文集(English ver. No. 7)

Unless large and concerted global mitigation efforts are initiated soon, the goal of remaining below 2 °C will very soon become unachievable.

The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C」Nature Climate Change (Jan 2013, pp. 4 - 6)
大気中CO2濃度が依然として最悪のシナリオと同じ道筋を辿っていることを受けて

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Indeed, a comparison of past greenhouse proxy data with model output may be the only validation of model climate sensitivity most of us are likely to see in our lifetimes.

A sensitivity to history」Nature Geoscience (Jan 2013, pp. 15 - 16)
古気候記録を用いて将来の温暖化の程度を推定する

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Food and military security were the key objectives for Haber. For us, global environmental sustainability must surely be the main driver for future innovation.

How a century of ammonia synthesis changed the world」Nature Geoscience 2008
ハーバー・ボッシュ法によるアンモニアの人工合成技術(肥料・爆薬など)がどれほど世界を変えたか

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It currently appears that a different flavour of perfect storm has occurred in 2012, but it is hard to quantify relative factors, given the dearth of Arctic observations.

More surprises may yet be in store.

But in Arctic climate science, shocking has become almost routine.


The great sea-ice dwindle」Nature Geoscience (Jan 2013, pp. 10 - 11)
北極海の海氷の量が研究者の予想を遥かに超えた速度で失われていることを受けて

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If we are about to cross such a critical threshold, the implications for climate adaptation strategies could be significant. Likewise, knowledge of thresholds would have a strong influence on mitigation policy, not least by helping to define the meaning of the term ‘dangerous climate change’.

If the models are to be used for the prediction of potential future events of abrupt change, their ability to simulate such events needs to be firmly established — science is about evidence, not belief systems.


Built for stability」Nature Geoscience (2011, pp. 414 - 416)
急激な気候変動はモデルでは再現できないこと

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…it would be valuable for economic studies to explore the ‘insurance value’ of reducing the risk of climate feedbacks.

The study’s key message reinforces previous findings and more ambitious global action is required to maintain any chance of limiting global warming to 2 °C. The clear finding that the world would be better off acting from 2015 rather than 2020 also raises sharp and serious questions about the trade-offs implicit in the current pace of global negotiations and action. The window for effective action on climate change is closing quickly, and Rogelj et al. have put a price tag on each year of delay.


All in the timing」Nature (2012, vol. 493, pp. 35-36)
気候変動緩和にかかるコストが行動開始のタイミングに強く依存すること

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Today you wasted is tomorrow loser wanted.
あなたが無駄にした今日はどれだけの人が願っても叶わなかった未来である。
ハーバード大学の図書館にある張り紙とのこと
後輩のブログより

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In December 2011, leaders from 195 countries pledged that by 2015 they would set targets for reducing emissions starting in 2020; if they stick to that course, Hatfield-Dodds calculates, there will be a 56% chance of keeping the temperature increase below 2 °C. However, delaying action until 2025 would decrease that chance to 34%. Bringing the curbs forward to 2015, by contrast, would improve the odds to 60%, all else being equal.

early action is our best bet.

Politics is biggest factor in climate uncertainty」Nature News (02 January 2013)

今の決定が将来の温暖化の規模とその削減にかかる費用を大きく決める。

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Curiosity's middle name is Patience.

The First Signs of Ancient Life on Mars?」Science NOW
キュリオシティが火星の堆積物中に有機物を検出したが、それが本当に生命由来かどうかの決定は’辛抱強く’待たなければならないということ。

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We felt that the best thing to do was to put the result out there and see if somebody can either independently confirm it or shoot it down.

If the planets exist, they orbit a star that's about twice as old as our own, so a suitable planet has had plenty of time to develop life much more advanced than Homo sapiens. That may just explain why no one from Tau Ceti has ever contacted beings as primitive as us.

Another Earth Just 12 Light-Years Away?」Science NOW
系外惑星のシグナル検出は非常に難しく、本当の意味で正しさを検証するには10年間にわたる観測の蓄積が必要な場合も。

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what we've seen from the Kyoto protocol really is that perhaps a huge multilateral agreement involving so many nations is just, its difficult and may be it doesn't really work in practice.

...adaptation is extremely diverse now. You know, it's really very location specific.

...the issue with adaptation is that it's about planning under very uncertain, you know, scenarios.

One of them is, you know, be flexible, so you know, don't lock yourself into a sort of a hard and fast plan. You know that's one really important lesson. I think the other is buoyant from the local community.

29th November 2012 edition of the weekly Nature Podcast」Olive Heffernan
気候変動緩和のための京都議定書がほとんど実効性がなかったこと、そして将来の気候変動に備えて我々がどういった態度で臨めばいいか、など。