科学そのものが急速に変化している。そのため、それをシェアする方法もまた追いつく必要がある。
「The future of publishing: A new page」Nature 495, pp. 425 (28 Mar 2013)
オープン・アクセスをめぐるNature誌の特集
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Communicating the science of climate change provides one example where the scientific community must do more. Climate change affects everyone, so everyone should understand why the climate is changing and what it means for them, their children, and generations to follow.
Implicit in this resource is the message that the world must make adaptations to changes that have already occurred and that reducing emissions is required to avoid a warmer planet.
“Isn't it the responsibility of scientists, if you believe that you have found something that can affect the environment, isn't it your responsibility to do something about it, enough so that action actually takes place?...If not us, who? If not now, when?”
F. Sherwood Rowland
「Climate Change Conversations」by B. Z. Shakhashiri & J. A. Bell
Science 340, pp. 9 (5 April 2013)
気候変化をアウトリーチする必要性、科学市民を作る必要性
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Is it the ‘rogue’ geoengineer Russ George, who wants to fertilize the oceans with iron so that he can generate carbon credits to sell? Is it the eccentric Russian Yuri Izrael, who is experimenting with aerosol spraying? How about oil giants such as ExxonMobil, which for years funded climate-science disinformation and is now talking up the prospects of geoengineering. Does ‘we’ mean the Chinese or US military, the organizations with the best access to the equipment needed to deploy a sulphate aerosol shield?
So the call to ‘do the research’ entrenches a situation in which geoengineering is often carried out by the wrong people, for the wrong reasons and with no oversight, and in the process is creating a lobby group that is likely to press for deployment because it is in its financial or professional interests to do so.
We are entertaining the idea of intervening in the climate system to prevent climatic disaster because of the inability of our political and social systems to implement sharp reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions.
「No, we should not just ‘at least do the research’」by Clive Hamilton
Nature 496, 139 (11 April 2013)
地球工学分野における研究の姿勢、管理団体、是非などをめぐる議論。
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It is an inescapable fact that if you are trying to track changes over time, you only get one chance to measure each point. To prove you got it right, you must take mea- surements in multiple ways.
「Recording Earth’s Vital Signs」by R. F. Keeling
Science 319, pp. 1771-1772 (28 Mar 2008)
マウナロアにおける大気中CO2濃度の連続観測の50周年記念。D. Keelingの息子、R. Keelingによる解説記事。
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The prospect of ocean acidification is potentially the most serious of all predicted outcomes of anthropogenic carbon dioxide increase. This study concludes that acidi- fication has the potential to trigger a sixth mass extinction event and to do so independently of anthropogenic extinctions that are currently taking place.
「Mass extinctions and ocean acidification: biological constraints on geological dilemmas」Veron, 2008, Coral Reef
地質時代の海洋酸性化とサンゴの大量絶滅イベント
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The increasing complexity of recent model versions does not necessarily imply improved model skill.
...the discussion about BC and other short-lived climate forcers must not obscure the 38-billion-ton and growing gorilla in the room—the amount of CO2 emitted annually into the atmosphere—which needs to be cut sharply and promptly to avoid accelerating climate change.
「Climate’s Dark Forcings」Science 340, pp. 280-281 (19 April 2013)
ブラック・カーボン（煤）が気候に与える影響の評価の大きな不確実性
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Although low levels of nitrogen deposition might mitigate the effects of increased atmospheric CO2 to some degree, 53–76% of this coincidental benefit is itself estimated to be offset globally. This is because nitrogen deposition can stimulate net emissions of other greenhouse gases (methane and nitrous oxide) that are products of microbial activity in the soils of many ecosystems.
They found that, for evergreen needleleaf forests in temperate and boreal zones, maximal photosynthesis under optimal environmental conditions increased with continuous nitrogen-deposition rates up to a threshold of about 8 kg of nitrogen deposition per hectare per year. Above this value, no further increase in photosynthesis was observed.
A better understanding of how the connections between carbon and nitrogen in the environment could change in the future is also required.
「Nitrogen deposition and forest carbon」Nature 496, 307–308 (18 April 2013)
人為起源の窒素によって光合成が活発化する北半球の森林。
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Carbon-emitting infrastructure is designed to benefit humankind for many decades; each year’s additional infrastructure implies added stock intended to last and emit CO2 for many decades. It is this dependence on CO2-emitting technology that generates a commitment to current and near-future emissions. Cleaner alternatives are being developed and carbon capture and storage technologies are being tested, but technological development and diffusion are subject to substantial inertia. Societal inertia, rather than the inertia of the climate system, is thus the critical challenge if we wish to begin to decrease the rate of CO2-induced global warming in the near future.
If technological investments and innovation increase the availability of reduced-carbon sources of energy that are competitive in price, development can continue to improve the lives of people in emerging economies without driving global climate change to increasingly dangerous levels. If reduced-carbon energy sources are not advanced rapidly, a great deal of carbon-intensive infrastructure is likely to be put in place in the developing world, implying a large and ongoing societal commitment to further global CO2 emissions and consequent climate warming.
Although emissions reductions cannot return global temperatures to preindustrial levels, they do have the power to avert additional warming on the same time scale as the emissions reductions themselves. Climate warming tomorrow, this year, this decade, or this century is not predetermined by past CO2 emissions; it is yet to be determined by future emissions. The climate benefits of emissions reductions would thus occur on the same time scale as the political decisions that lead to the reductions.
「Irreversible Does Not Mean Unavoidable」Science 340, 438-439 (26 April 2013)
人為起源の窒素によって光合成が活発化する北半球の森林。
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Carbon-emitting infrastructure is designed to benefit humankind for many decades; each year’s additional infrastructure implies added stock intended to last and emit CO2 for many decades. It is this dependence on CO2-emitting technology that generates a commitment to current and near-future emissions. Cleaner alternatives are being developed and carbon capture and storage technologies are being tested, but technological development and diffusion are subject to substantial inertia. Societal inertia, rather than the inertia of the climate system, is thus the critical challenge if we wish to begin to decrease the rate of CO2-induced global warming in the near future.
If technological investments and innovation increase the availability of reduced-carbon sources of energy that are competitive in price, development can continue to improve the lives of people in emerging economies without driving global climate change to increasingly dangerous levels. If reduced-carbon energy sources are not advanced rapidly, a great deal of carbon-intensive infrastructure is likely to be put in place in the developing world, implying a large and ongoing societal commitment to further global CO2 emissions and consequent climate warming.
Although emissions reductions cannot return global temperatures to preindustrial levels, they do have the power to avert additional warming on the same time scale as the emissions reductions themselves. Climate warming tomorrow, this year, this decade, or this century is not predetermined by past CO2 emissions; it is yet to be determined by future emissions. The climate benefits of emissions reductions would thus occur on the same time scale as the political decisions that lead to the reductions.
「Irreversible Does Not Mean Unavoidable」Science 340, 438-439 (26 April 2013)
今後の温暖化の程度を決めるのは、これからの温室効果ガスの排出量に依存する。既に人間に手がつけられない状態にあるわけではない。
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The number of US probes is likely to dwindle from 23 to just 6 by 2020, threatening to degrade scientists’ ability to track climate change, forecast weather and monitor natural disasters.
アメリカの宇宙探査機の数は現在の23から2020年にはたったの６へと徐々に減少すると思われ、科学者が気候変化や気象予測、自然災害をモニタリングする能力を脅かしている。
Researchers who warned for years of this slow-moving disaster are now left to watch it unfold. And it comes at a time when concern is growing about the pace of climate change and the pressure that the world’s burgeoning population is placing on limited natural resources.
長年このゆっくりと進行する災害（気候変化）について警告を出していた研究者は現在それが明らかになるのを見るのを任されている。そして気候変化の速度に対する関心が高まり、世界の急増する人口が限られた自然資源に期待を寄せる時代がやってきた。
Progress depends on the United States making hard decisions about what Earth observations it needs and how best to provide them. For scientists, and society, the dilemma is clear: we cannot manage what we cannot measure.
進展があるかどうかはアメリカが何の地球観測を必要とし、どのようにしてそれを実行するかについて強固な決断を下せるかどうかに依る。科学者と社会にとってのジレンマは明らかである：私たちは測定できないものには対処できないのである。
「Plan for the future」Nature 497 (2 May 2013)
地球観測の未来。
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Near the moonscape summit of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, an infrared analyser will soon make history. Sometime in the next month, it is expected to record a daily concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of more than 400 parts per million (p.p.m.), a value not reached at this key surveillance point for a few million years.
ハワイのマウナロア火山の月のような頂上付近で、赤外分析器がもうまもなく歴史を作ろうとしている。来月の未明、大気中の二酸化炭素濃度が400ppm以上を記録すると予想されている。過去数百万年間においてこの重要な観測拠点で達したことのない数値である。
There will be no balloons or noisemakers to celebrate the event. Researchers who monitor greenhouse gases will regard it more as a disturbing marker of humanity’s power to alter the chemistry of the atmosphere and by extension, the climate of the planet.
そのイベントを祝う風船や騒がしい音はないだろう。温室効果ガスをモニターする研究者は、それを「人類が大気組成を変え、さらには惑星の気候すらも変えてしまう力」の現れとしてより捉えるようになるだろう。
“It’s a time to take stock of where we are and where we’re going,” says Ralph Keeling.
"我々が「今どこにいて」、そして「どこに向かうのか」について吟味する時が来ている"と、Ralph Keelingは語る。
“The real question now is: how will the sinks behave in the future?” says Gregg Marland. (...) But climate models suggest that the land and ocean will not keep pace for long.
"現在の真の疑問は、そうした（CO2の）吸収源（海や陸上の植生）が将来どのように振る舞うか、ということだ"とGregg Marlandは語る。（中略）しかし、気候モデルは陸と海は（人間のCO2放出に）長くは追いついていけないことを示唆している。
“At some point the planet can’t keep doing us a favour, particularly the terrestrial biosphere,” says Jim White. (…) As the sinks slow down and more emitted CO2 stays in the atmosphere, levels will rise even faster.
"どこかで地球は我々に親切にしてくれなくなるだろう。特に陸上の生物圏は"とJim Whiteは語る。（中略）吸収源が遅くなるにつれて、より多くの排出されたCO2が大気中に留まることになり、さらに（大気中のCO2）濃度上昇は加速するだろう。
「Global carbon dioxide levels near worrisome milestone」Nature 497 (2 May 2013)
大気中CO2濃度がもう間もなく400ppmという危険なレベルに達する。
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The number of US probes is likely to dwindle from 23 to just 6 by 2020, threatening to degrade scientists’ ability to track climate change, forecast weather and monitor natural disasters.
アメリカの宇宙探査機の数は現在の23から2020年にはたったの６へと徐々に減少すると思われ、科学者が気候変化や気象予測、自然災害をモニタリングする能力を脅かしている。
Researchers who warned for years of this slow-moving disaster are now left to watch it unfold. And it comes at a time when concern is growing about the pace of climate change and the pressure that the world’s burgeoning population is placing on limited natural resources.
長年このゆっくりと進行する災害（気候変化）について警告を出していた研究者は現在それが明らかになるのを見るのを任されている。そして気候変化の速度に対する関心が高まり、世界の急増する人口が限られた自然資源に期待を寄せる時代がやってきた。
Progress depends on the United States making hard decisions about what Earth observations it needs and how best to provide them. For scientists, and society, the dilemma is clear: we cannot manage what we cannot measure.
進展があるかどうかはアメリカが何の地球観測を必要とし、どのようにしてそれを実行するかについて強固な決断を下せるかどうかに依る。科学者と社会にとってのジレンマは明らかである：私たちは測定できないものには対処できないのである。
「Plan for the future」Nature 497 (2 May 2013)
地球観測の未来。
〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜〜
Near the moonscape summit of the Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii, an infrared analyser will soon make history. Sometime in the next month, it is expected to record a daily concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of more than 400 parts per million (p.p.m.), a value not reached at this key surveillance point for a few million years.
ハワイのマウナロア火山の月のような頂上付近で、赤外分析器がもうまもなく歴史を作ろうとしている。来月の未明、大気中の二酸化炭素濃度が400ppm以上を記録すると予想されている。過去数百万年間においてこの重要な観測拠点で達したことのない数値である。
There will be no balloons or noisemakers to celebrate the event. Researchers who monitor greenhouse gases will regard it more as a disturbing marker of humanity’s power to alter the chemistry of the atmosphere and by extension, the climate of the planet.
そのイベントを祝う風船や騒がしい音はないだろう。温室効果ガスをモニターする研究者は、それを「人類が大気組成を変え、さらには惑星の気候すらも変えてしまう力」の現れとしてより捉えるようになるだろう。
“It’s a time to take stock of where we are and where we’re going,” says Ralph Keeling.
"我々が「今どこにいて」、そして「どこに向かうのか」について吟味する時が来ている"と、Ralph Keelingは語る。
“The real question now is: how will the sinks behave in the future?” says Gregg Marland. (...) But climate models suggest that the land and ocean will not keep pace for long.
"現在の真の疑問は、そうした（CO2の）吸収源（海や陸上の植生）が将来どのように振る舞うか、ということだ"とGregg Marlandは語る。（中略）しかし、気候モデルは陸と海は（人間のCO2放出に）長くは追いついていけないことを示唆している。
“At some point the planet can’t keep doing us a favour, particularly the terrestrial biosphere,” says Jim White. (…) As the sinks slow down and more emitted CO2 stays in the atmosphere, levels will rise even faster.
"どこかで地球は我々に親切にしてくれなくなるだろう。特に陸上の生物圏は"とJim Whiteは語る。（中略）吸収源が遅くなるにつれて、より多くの排出されたCO2が大気中に留まることになり、さらに（大気中のCO2）濃度上昇は加速するだろう。
「Global carbon dioxide levels near worrisome milestone」Nature 497 (2 May 2013)
大気中CO2濃度がもう間もなく400ppmという危険なレベルに達する。
