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2015年6月18日木曜日

気になった一文集(English ver. No. 25)

Ocean data are expensive to collect. Ships are costly to build, equally so to run. But to neglect the oceans because it is cheaper to get good results on land is foolish.

Deep mysteriesNature 517, 244 (15 January 2015). "EDITORIAL"

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If scientists want to bolster their credibility on the subject of global warming, the authors say, then they must harness the power of the Internet and reduce the time they spend in the air.

But the Tyndall Centre is right to point out that senior researchers probably do not need to fly halfway around the globe simply to present a paper at a conference.

In some ways, the working paper opens the door to questions that are even harder to answer. Do scientists have a responsibility to stop eating meat, given what we know about the greenhouse-gas intensity of beef production and to a lesser extent that of pork and chicken? Should we expect them to park their cars and take the bus or train instead? The fact is that these are personal choices that academics, like everybody else, must grapple with.

... scientists have a key role in making that happen, even if it means hopping on a flight to the next United Nations climate summit.

A clean, green science machineNature 519, 261  (18 March 2015) "EDITORIAL"

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“The real question is whether or not the high-income countries, the big polluting countries, are willing to pay loss and damages to countries that bear the brunt of the impacts,” she says. “Vulnerable countries have no other leverage within this political process.”
”真の疑問は、果たして大きな排出国でもある高収入国が、影響の矛先を向けられている国の損失・損害に対して快く賠償するかどうかということである。”と彼女は言う。”脆弱な国はこの政治的なプロセスの中でも影響力がないのである。”

At the same time, a growing body of research suggests that ecological and economic impacts are already occurring with the 0.8 °C of warming that has already occurred. These impacts will increase in severity as temperatures rise.
同時に、ますます多くの研究が、すでに起きた0.8℃の温暖化でも生態学的・経済学的な影響が生じていることを示唆している。こうした影響は温度が上昇するにつれてますます増加するだろう。

In both cases, governments must take immediate and aggressive action to start to steer the global emissions curve away from its upward trajectory.
いずれのケースでも(2℃もしくは1.5℃の温暖化に抑制する目標)、全球の排出曲線をいまの上向きの軌道から修正し始めるためにも、各国政府は迅速かつアグレッシブな行動を起こさなければならない。

Global-warming limit of 2 °C hangs in the balance」Nature News (27 March 2015)

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The negotiations’ goal has become what is politically possible, not what is environmentally desirable.
(温室効果ガス削減に関する)交渉の目標は環境学的に望ましいものから、政治的に可能であるものになりつつある。

The climate policy mantra — that time is running out for 2 °C but we can still make it if we act now — is a scientific nonsense. Advisers who shy away from saying so squander their scientific reputations and public trust in climate research.

「2℃の温暖化目標を達成する時間はあまり残されていないけれど、もし私たちが今行動すれば、まだ間に合う」という気候政策の教義は科学的にはナンセンスである。そう言うことを避けるアドバイザーは気候研究分野における科学的な評判と公に対する信頼を損ねるだろう。

Climate advisers must maintain integrityNature 521, 27–28 (07 May 2015) "Comment"

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It has been clear for some time that climate change is a defining social, and therefore political, issue for the twenty-first century. (…) But the core science is solid, and policy-makers at all levels have a responsibility to engage with it.
21世紀を通じて常に気候変化は典型的な社会問題、それゆえ政治問題であり続けてきた。(中略)しかし、中心にある科学は揺るぎないものであり、すべてのレベルの政策決定者はそれ(温室効果ガスの削減)に従事する責任がある。

(…) 63% of Americans believe that global warming is happening and 52% think that it is mostly caused by humans; just 18% think that it is not happening, with 32% believing that it is mostly due to natural environmental factors.
63%のアメリカ人は温暖化が起きていると信じており、52%はそれが人類によって起きていると考えている。一方で18%の人だけが起きていないと考えており、32%が主として自然変動によるものと信じている。

The rest of the world has moved beyond questions about whether climate change is real and is focused on how best to address it.
世界の国々は「気候変化が真実かどうか」に関する疑問を超えて動き始めており、どのように対処するのが最善かを考えることに集中している。

The right climateNature 522, 255–256 (18 June 2015) “Editorial

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The representation of biogeochemical processes in the CESM is advanced, but many feedbacks to those processes are uncertain or not represented. These include the impacts of ocean acidification, warming, increased levels of dissolved CO2 and a potential increase in the volume of low-oxygen zones on marine ecosystems, biological productivity, the production of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide, the export of biogenic particles from the surface to the deep ocean, and their sinking velocity and decomposition rate.

Data for past variations in CO2 levels and climate can help us to avoid relying exclusively on models to project future trends. Although palaeoclimatic information cannot be directly used to assess how climate change affects the flow of anthropogenic carbon, it does reveal how the natural carbon cycle alters.

A long-standing research challenge is to develop Earth system models that perform seamless simulations from the past to the future, consistently integrating palaeoclimatic and modern instrumental information in projections.

(…) carbon emitted today will change our environment irreversibly for many generations to come, and these changes increase hand in hand with cumulative carbon emissions. Sea level and the ocean’s acidity and carbon and heat content — and the associated adverse effects — will continue to increase long after atmospheric CO2 levels have stabilized, underscoring the need for near-term emission reduction.
(中略)現在排出される炭素は今後数世代にわたって不可逆的に地球環境を変え、そうした変化は積算の炭素排出量と密接に関係している。海水準・海の酸性度・熱容量(およびそれに付随する有害な影響)は大気の二酸化炭素濃度が安定化してからも長きにわたって変化し続けるため、短期的な排出削減の必要性を強調するものである。

(…) carbon-emission reductions are urgently needed if we are to limit global warming and ocean acidification to moderate levels. Any delay will narrow and eventually close the currently available window to meet stringent climate targets.
(中略)もし我々が温暖化と海洋酸性化を中程度のレベルに抑えるつもりがあるのなら炭素排出の削減は急を要する。いかなる遅れも厳しい気候目標を達成するために現在利用可能な窓を狭め、最終的に閉じることになるだろう。

Growing feedback from ocean carbon to climateNature 522, 295–296 (18 June 2015)

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 (…) during recent interglacial periods, small increases in global mean temperature and just a few degrees of polar warming relative to the preindustrial period resulted in ≥6 m of GMSL rise.

emerging geochemical and geophysical techniques show promise for identifying the sectors of the ice sheets that were most vulnerable to collapse in the past and perhaps will be again in the future.

Addressing outstanding questions and challenges regarding rates, magnitudes, and sources of past polar ice-sheet loss and resulting sea-level rise will continue to require integration of ice-sheet, sea-level, and solid Earth geophysical studies with good spatial distribution of well-dated RSL records to capture the magnitude of RSL variability across the globe.

Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods
Dutton et al. (2015, Science)