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2014年8月4日月曜日

気になった一文集(English ver. No. 23)

Most numerical models suggest that historical ocean physical and biogeochemical trends observed over the last several decades will continue at least through the middle of this century, and the trends may even accelerate in response to growing human population levels and, more importantly, rising economic standards of living, particularly in the developing world.
ほとんどの数値モデルが、過去数十年間にわたって観測されてきた海の物理的・生物地球化学的な変化傾向は、少なくとも今世紀中頃を通じて続くだろうと予測している。さらに、特に発展途上国において増加し続ける人口と(より重要な)生活基盤の改善に呼応して、その変化傾向が加速する可能性すらある。

For the last decade for which data are available (2002–2011), fossil fuel emissions averaged 8.3 ± 0.4 billion metric tons of carbon per year (uncertainty is ± 1 standard deviation in estimate of decadal mean). Over the same time period, fossil fuel emissions grew with time at a rate of 3.1% per year since the year 2000. Deforestation and land-use change accounted for an additional source of 1.0 ± 0.5 billion metric tons of carbon per year.
データが利用可能な過去10年間(2002–2011年)において、化石燃料由来の排出量は年平均で83 ± 4億トン(炭素換算)であった。同期間には、2000年以来年率3.1%の割合で排出量が増加した。森林破壊と土地利用の変化が、年間10 ± 5億トン(炭素換算)のさらなる排出量を担った。

Once released to the air, these greenhouse gases persist in the atmosphere for years to decades or longer, and the climatic impact of past and current human greenhouse gas emissions are global in extent and will be with us for a long time to come.
ひとたび大気中に放出されると、これらの温室効果ガス(※CO2・CH4・N2O・CFCs)は数年、数十年、もしくはそれ以上にわたって大気に残留する。人類による温室効果ガス排出の過去・現在の気候への影響は全球的であり、長期間にわたって我々につきまとう。

The phenomenon of global warming should, more appropriately, be called ocean warming, as more than 80% of the added heat resides in the ocean. Direct measurements of ocean temperatures show warming beginning in about 1970 down to at least 700 m, with stronger warming near the surface leading to increased thermal stratification (or layering) of the water column over much of the global ocean. Deep ocean temperatures are also on the rise.
加えられた熱の80%は海に蓄えられるため、より適切には、地球温暖化現象は海洋の温暖化と呼ぶべきである。海洋の温度の直接計測によると、温暖化は1970年代から、少なくとも700m深までの海洋表層で始まっており、表層ほど大きく温暖化するので、世界の海洋のかなりの部分で海の成層化を招いている。深海の温度もまた上昇しつつある。

Historical and Future Trends in Ocean Climate and Biogeochemistry
Doney, S.C., Bopp, L., and Long, M.C. Oceanography 27, 108–119 (2014).

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It is too early to draw firm conclusions on the net effect, but it is rather clear that ocean acidification will affect marine organisms and will cause change.
総合的な影響に対して確固たる結論を導くことは早計だが、海洋酸性化が海の生物に影響し、変化をもたらすことは明らかであろう。

While ocean acidification has been recognized as a topic of high research priority leading to a crescendo of studies, deoxygenation has not reached that level of recognition.
海洋酸性化は優先度の高い研究テーマとして徐々に認識され、研究の盛り上がりを見せているが、一方の貧酸素化はそうした認識のレベルには達していない。

But what is really missing is the joint perspective, where the full and synergistic effect of all three stressors acting at the same time is investigated.
しかし、本当に見落としているのは繋がっているという観点であり、同時発生する3つすべてのストレス源(温暖化・酸性化・貧酸素化)の全体効果・相乗効果が評価される必要がある。

Warming up, turning sour, losing breath: ocean biogeochemistry under global change
Nicolas Gruber, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 369, 1980–1996 (2011).

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Unless both groups take concerted action, stabilizing the climate will be impossible.

As economies mature, they become more efficient. But this improvement in energy intensity has not been fast enough to offset the overall effect of growing economies.

Current international policy approaches, which ignore trade, create strong incentives for countries to sit outside climate agreements and to take a free ride on benefits, not only in terms of climate change mitigation but also because of industry relocation.

Getting serious about categorizing countriesScience 345, 34–36 (4 July 2014).

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…potential benefits need to be weighed against the time and effort expended and the real risks of feeling under attack. Additional recognition of the value and importance of such activities among academic employers would also help.

T e challenge is to embrace the complexity of the situation, to acknowledge the uncertainty and the nuance, to welcome questions and investigation and show the process of climate science in good health. Online engagement would seem to be essential in this endeavour. 

Pause for thoughtNature Climate Change 4, 154–156 (March 2014)

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After our fossil fuel blow-out, how long will the CO2 hangover last? And what about the global fever that comes along with it?
我々の化石燃料が燃やされ尽くされたあと、どれほど長くCO2の二日酔いは続くのだろう?また、それに伴う地球全体の熱っぽさについてはどうだろう?

Carbon is forever」Mason Inman, Nature Reports Climate Change (20 November 2008)

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According to Status of Coral Reefs of the World: 2008, a synthesis report by hundreds of scientists and environmental managers, 19% of the world’s coral reefs have been lost since 1950 and another 35% are threatened or in critical condition.
数百名の科学者と環境管理者によって書かれた総合的な報告書、”世界のサンゴ礁の状態:2008年版”によると、世界のサンゴ礁の19%は1950年以降失われ、さらに35%は脅かされているまたは危機的状況にある。

Their analyses suggest that corals can ‘toughen up’ over the course of their lifetimes in response to environmental conditions.
彼らの解析によると、サンゴは環境の状態に応答することで、生活史を通じて”屈強になる”ことが可能であることが示唆されている。

A final, important piece of the puzzle is the corals’ symbiotic algae: these are shorter-lived and faster-evolving than their hosts, and research has shown that they can pass along thermal tolerance.
最後の、重要なパズルのピースはサンゴに共生する藻類である:彼らはホストであるサンゴよりも短命であり、速く進化することができ、熱耐性を引き継ぐことができることが研究によって示されている。

Designer reefs」Amanda Mascarelli, Nature News Feature (23 April 2014)

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In the meantime, the world’s output of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases has continued to rise. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere reached 396 parts per million in 2013, 42% higher than pre-industrial levels. Last year’s was the largest annual increase since 1984, according to figures reported on 9 September by the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, Switzerland.

The challenge is formidable, says Nicholas Stern, a climate-change economist at the London School of Economics. By 2030, Stern says, the world must reduce its greenhouse-gas emissions by roughly 20% from the current level to have a chance of limiting warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, the UNFCCC’s stated goal. Current emissions pledges put the world on track for a 3 °C warming by 2100, according to a 7 September report by PriceWaterhouseCoopers.

Climate summit previewspush for new global treaty