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2014年3月24日月曜日

気になった一文集(English ver. No. 20)

The physics through which greenhouse gases warm the atmosphere is well understood. However, feedbacks within the atmosphere can enhance or reduce this warming, and the magnitudes of those feedbacks, particularly those associated with clouds, are much more uncertain.
温室効果ガスが大気を暖める物理についてはよく理解されている。しかしながら、大気中のフィードバックはこの温暖化を促進或いは軽減し、それらのフィードバックの大きさ(特に雲に関連したもの)についてはかなり不確かである。

Despite substantial progress in determining observational constraints for future global-mean warming, the uncertainty range in the estimated contribution of greenhouse gases to the observed global-mean warming is still quite large at 0.5 to 1.3°C. A large part of this uncertainty results from difficulties in distinguishing the effects of greenhouse gas-induced warming from other effects, particularly the cooling effect of tropospheric aerosols.
将来の全球の平均的な気温上昇に対する観測的な制約を与えることについてはこれまでにかなりの進展があったが、それにも関わらず温室効果ガスが全球平均気温の温暖化に与える寄与の推定値は0.5-1.3℃と依然非常に大きい。この不確実性の大部分は温室効果ガスによる温暖化を他の影響(特に対流圏のエアロゾルの寒冷効果)から分けることが難しいことに起因する。

Better observational information, including from satellite data and further back in time from digitization of old weather records, will improve understanding of regional climate change and climate variability.
人工衛星記録や古い気象記録のデジタル記録からのより時代を遡った復元(※)を含む、より良い観測記録が地域的な気候変化と気候変動との理解を改善するだろう。
※要するに、定量的な古気候復元

There is little doubt that human activities were the main cause of global warming over the past 60 years, but work to better understand the causes of changes in regional climate, and thereby better understand our vulnerability to climate extremes, is far from done.
「過去60年間の地球温暖化の主たる要因は人間活動である」ことはそれほど疑わしいことではないが、「地域的な気候の変化の原因をよりよく理解できている」、すなわち「極端な気候に対する人類の弱さをよりよく理解できている」とは到底言い難い。

From Past to Future WarmingScience 343, 844-845

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If indeed the tropical Pacific is central to the current hiatus, then it may take a while until the Pacific shifts into a warm state and global surface temperatures resume their upward trend.
もし本当に赤道太平洋が現在のハイエタスにとって中心的な役割を負っているのだとすると、太平洋が温暖な状態へとシフトし、全球の表層気温が上昇傾向に戻るにはまだしばらく時間がかかるかもしれない。

The question of what drives decadal changes in the Pacific, as well as their predictability, takes on new urgency in the context of the current hiatus.
現在のハイエタスという背景においては、「太平洋の数十年規模の変化を何が駆動しているのか」また「それは予測可能かどうか」という疑問が新たな緊急課題となる。

Looking back into the past may help to unravel the role of the Pacific Ocean in modulating changes in global mean surface temperature.
過去を顧みるということが太平洋が全球の表層平均気温の変化を調整する上でどういった役割を負っているのかを知る手助けとなるかもしれない。

Proxies for past climatic conditions— for example, from corals or tree rings—can also provide more observations of decadal-scale shifts in the tropical Pacific climate and help to determine how well climate models simulate the range of variability of the preindustrial climate.
過去の気候状態の間接指標(例えば、サンゴや木の年輪など)はまた、赤道太平洋の気候の数十年規模のシフトに対するより多くの観測記録を提供し、気候モデルが産業革命以前の気候の変動幅をどれほど上手く再現できているかを決定する手助けとなる。

To increase the accuracy of ocean heat content estimates, it is critical that observational capability in the ocean, including arrays of autonomous profiling floats and tropical moorings, is maintained and expanded.
海洋の熱容量の推定の確からしさを増加させるためにも、(自動プロファイル・フロートや熱帯域の係留観測機器を含む)海洋の観測能力を維持し、さらに拡張することが必要不可欠である。

Greenhouse gases are warming the planet, and will continue to do so. Developing a framework for measuring and attributing subtle variations in the global energy budget—from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the ocean— is one of the outstanding challenges.
温室効果ガスは地球を暖めており、またそれは今後も続くだろう。地球大気の最上部から深海までの、全球のエネルギー収支のわずかな変化を測定し、原因を特定するための枠組みを作ることが明白な目標の一つである。

The Tropical Pacific Ocean−−Back in the Driver's Seat?Science 343, 976-978.

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As Ward explains, whilst reducing uncertainty is a key research question, it should not be the starting point in communication.

But communication does not work if it is not tailored to the targeted audience — in this case the general public. And addressing the public is an ongoing job scientists should proactively take on.


Scientist communicatorsNature Climate Change 4, 149 (2014)

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We live in interesting times as we watch diverse effects of human activities on Earth’s climate emerge from natural variability.

Basing decisions on predictions of forced climate change is formally analogous to using knowledge of the normal climatological seasonal cycle to inform vacation plans, ignoring any weather predictions.

Simplicity amid ComplexityScience 343, 1206-1207 (14 March 2014). "Perspective"

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There is clearly much to learn about the interplay of various factors that have collectively caused the remarkable slow-down in global average surface warming. At the same time, it is important to keep in mind that this particular indicator of climate change — useful as it may be as an abstract, integrated measure — has little direct impact on human lives.

However, in the course of this pursuit we must not lose sight of the more complicated expressions of climate change — for example, on continental or smaller spatial scales, in variables other than surface temperature, and in terms of extremes around the average.

Hiatus in contextNature Geoscience 7, 157 (2014). "Editorial"

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“data without models are chaos, but models without data are fantasy.” Spatially and temporally, better measurement is essential to identify and quantify methane sources, but long-term data gathering is in trouble. Despite methane’s attractiveness as a cost-effective greenhouse reduction target, budgets for greenhouse gas monitoring are contracting. Somewhere, perhaps in the tropics or East Asia, unwelcome methane surprises may lurk, but watchers are few. 

Methane on the Rise—AgainScience 343, 493-495 (31 January 2014). "Perspective"