種ごとに傷つきやすさが違うため、二酸化炭素濃度の上昇は海の生命の大きな改造に繋がると思われる。そのため、海における異なるニッチを占領するような、長期的な種のシフトが起きる可能性が高い。
About the only thing that’s certain is that there will be changes — huge changes — to the seafood section in your store, if there even is one by the year 2100.
一つだけ確かなことは、（それが2100年まで存続していれば）身近な店の鮮魚コーナーに変化があるということである。それは大きな変化である。
「Ocean acidification: more than just corals at risk」Larry O’Hanlon, Discovery.com (25 August 2013)
海洋酸性化によって、海洋生態系に大きなシフトが起きる可能性が高い
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Most importantly, the panel has increased its confidence in the underlying message — that greenhouse gases are altering Earth’s climate. No serious politician on the planet can now dispute that.
もっとも重要なことに、パネルはその下に潜む「温室効果ガスが地球の気候を変えている」というメッセージに関する信頼度を増している。地球上においてそれに異を唱える熱心な政治家はもはやいない。
The governments of the world, to whom the IPCC reports, have made precious little headway in reducing emissions. And they appear in little hurry to do so. For all of these reasons, it would seem that a little reform is in order.
IPCCが報告書を提出する先の世界中の政府はほんのちょっとしか排出量を減らす方向へと向かっていない。またそれを急いでいるようにも見えない。こうしたすべての理由から、ほんのちょっとの改革しか準備ができていないように思われる。
「The final assessment」Nature 501, 281 (19 September 2013)
IPCC第五次報告書が提出された
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The panel had previously projected much higher rates of sea-level rise, but its 2007 assessment admitted that it could not tackle the entire problem: the predictions did not include the possibility of rapid changes in ice cover in Greenland or the Antarctic because the authors had concluded that it was impossible to forecast such behaviour with the knowledge and models then available. Yet as early as 2009, it was clear that real sea-level rise was on pace to exceed the 2007 projections.
パネルは以前もっと早い海水準上昇速度を予測していたが、2007年の報告書では全ての問題を解決できないことを認めていた。つまり、予測にはグリーンランドや南極の氷が急速に変化する可能性を含めておらず、それはさらに、執筆者たちが当時の知識やモデルでそうした振る舞いを予測することは不可能と結論づけたことが原因である。しかしながら、2009年のはじめ頃には、真の海水準上昇速度が2007年に予測されたものを上回るペースであったことが明確になっていた。
「Rising tide」Nature 501, 301–302 (19 September 2013)
海水準上昇の予測が2007年のIPCC第４次報告書から2013年の第５次報告書までの間に大きく進展した。急激な氷床崩壊（特に西南極氷床）の可能性も考慮され始めている。
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Fish are able to adapt to different pH levels better than other species, such as coral. Since coral tends to spend its entire life on one spot, it is not adapted to deal with changes in environment.
サンゴなどといった他の生物種と比較して、魚類は異なるpHに対して適応することができる。サンゴはその生涯をある一地点で過ごす傾向があるため、環境の変化に対して対処するように適応していないためである。
「Ocean acidification bad news for future fish, worse for coral; what will the ocean look like in 2100?」Rebekah Marcarelli, HNGN (26 August 2013)
海洋酸性化はさまざまな生物にあらゆる影響を与える
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However, this positive outlook is limited to short- and medium-term survival rates for individuals within a given population of any species. The researchers found, for instance, that ommastrephid squid are highly sensitive to acid-base disturbances as they have a high metabolic rate and an extremely pH-sensitive blood oxygen transport system.
しかしながら、楽観的な見通しはある種のある集団の生物の短期的・中期的な生存率のみに限られる。例えば、研究者らはommastrephid科のイカが、高い代謝速度とpHに非常に敏感な血液の酸素輸送システムを持っているために、酸-塩基の擾乱に対して敏感であることを見つけた。
Because the ocean is an ecological system, any shift in a single population of inhabitants might directly impact species we currently fish and eat.
海は生態系システムであるため、その住民の１つの集団のシフトだけでも我々が現在釣り、食べている種にも直接的に影響すると思われる。
「Ocean acidification may substantially change aquatic ecosystems and even impact how we eat」Susan Scutti, Medical Daily (26 August 2013)
海洋酸性化と生態系
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Rumours of the impending change have caused uproar among US geoscientists. They have sent a flood of letters to the NSF to high- light the valuable research conducted through ocean drilling — the only way to access con- tinuous geological records older than about a million years
But the Chikyu, like the JOIDES Resolution, has faced higher operating costs than expected; it spends about five months a year on science, and the rest of its time on mostly industry work, to help to pay the bills.
At the same time, the 35-year-old JOIDES Resolution has only so much life left in it. “The community is waking up and seeing that we don’t have this tool forever,” says Bradford Clement.
「Drilling hit by budget woes」Nature 501, 469–470 (26 September 2013)
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Climate change means the coming decades are likely to bring more frequent episodes of severe drought, with potentially devastating impact on the world's ability to feed a growing population. We therefore need a sustainable agricultural system that makes the most efficient use of water and reduces expensive and environmentally challenging inputs such as fertilizer and pesticides.
気候変化が意味するのは、今後数十年間にわたってひどい干ばつが頻発化すること、それが増え続ける人口を養うための農業活動を著しく圧迫する可能性があることである。そのため、水の利用効率を最大化し、肥料や農薬といった高価で環境に影響を与える添加物の使用量を減らすことで、持続可能な農業システムを構築する必要がある。
「Agriculture and drought」Nature 501, S1 (26 September 2013)
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The ice is also thinning. Overall, its volume declined 36% in autumn and 9% in winter over 2003–12, according to a recent analysis of data collected by the European Space Agency’s Cryosat probe. This past winter, ice volume stood at less than 15,000 cubic kilometres, the lowest value ever recorded by Cryosat, according to results released last week by Andrew Shepherd, an ice expert at the University of Edinburgh, UK.
氷は同時に薄くもなっている。ヨーロッパ宇宙局の雪氷圏観測衛星（Cryosat）が収集したデータの最近の解析によると、全体として、2003年から2012年にかけて秋の体積は36%、冬の体積は9%低下した。イギリス・エディンバラ大学の氷の専門家Andrew Shepherdが先週公表した結果によると、この間の冬は氷の体積は15,000立方キロメートル以下となり、Cryosatが記録してからは最小の値となった。
「Arctic sea-ice minimum is sixth smallest on record」Lauren Morello, NATURE NEWS BLOG (18 Sep 2013)
北極の海氷の面積・体積がともに急速に減少している
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Climate change is causing extreme weather and climate events to become more frequent and intense, with this trend expected to continue and, for some kinds of event, to accelerate in the coming years and decades, regardless of attempts to limit the human actions responsible. Such events are occurring not just singly, but also jointly and sequentially, with less time for recovery in between.
As climate-related events become more intense, with less recovery time between them, the damage caused will increasingly exceed the capacity for short-term coping and response and make longer-term recovery more difficult.
Damage is not restricted to the places where extreme events occur. Global supply chains for food, oil and other critical commodities and services can transmit effects internationally.
Anticipatory and iterative risk management, including adaptation and mitigation, is the prudent strategy for reducing climate-related risks. Reducing activities that contribute to climate change is essential, as this will make disruptive events less frequent and costly later in the century. On a shorter time scale, risk management can reduce exposures to unavoidable and potentially damaging events, reduce susceptibilities and increase capacities for coping, response and recovery.
Scientific analysis can inform risk-reduction choices.
Stress tests can identify anticipatory responses to reduce these impacts and improve resilience. Monitoring implemented responses will help identify future adjustments to prepare for additional risks that arise with climate change.
Reducing activities that contribute to climate change is essential, as this will make disruptive events less frequent and costly later in the century. On a shorter time scale, risk management can reduce exposures to unavoidable and potentially damaging events, reduce susceptibilities and increase capacities for coping, response and recovery.
「Managing risk with climate vulnerability science」Nature Climate Change 3, 607–609 (2013)
